Annual Report 2024/25 - Monitoring Progress
Fragility Index / Population Aged 16-29
Fragility Index
The Fragility Index was added as an indicator to the Shetland Partnership’s monitoring in 2024. It is a combined index of three indicators: depopulation, old age dependency ratio (the ratio of older people (65 and over) to the working age population aged 16 to 64), and rural depopulation (the change in the proportion of the population living in rural or rural remote areas). A rising index indicates an increasingly fragile demographic. This indicator is compiled by the Improvement Service for their Community Planning Outcomes Profile (CPOP).
In 2022/23, Shetland’s fragility index score was 114.3, up from 113.2 the previous year. This is the highest score for Shetland since data has been available (2010/11). There has also been an upward trend in Scotland, but the index is lower at 109.2. Shetland had the second highest fragility index compared to other local authorities in Scotland in 2022/23, behind Aberdeenshire.
Over the past 10 years, Shetland's population has decreased by 1%, but the demographic changes have been more significant. Between the 2011 and 2022 censuses, the percentage of people over 65 increased from 16.3% to 21.8%, while the working-age population (16-64) dropped from 64% to 60%. In last year’s report, it was stated that these shifts mean services and businesses may need to adapt. In 2024, Shetland Islands Council highlighted their workforce challenge noting recruitment difficulties faced by many organisations and businesses in the isles.
Population aged 16-29
In 2023, 14% of the population were aged 16-29, the same as in 2022. This is down from the baseline of 15.5% in 2018 and below the 2021 target of 18%. Scotland's lower birth rate compared to the rest of the UK may contribute to this decline. Patterns of inward migration may have changed as a result of the UK’s adoption of a points-based immigration system which prioritises skilled workers; anecdotal evidence suggests that Shetland, like other remote areas, has been disproportionately affected by changes to UK migration legislation, due to the prominence of sectors which previously had a high dependence on EU migrant workers (e.g. hospitality, health, social care, processing, aquaculture).