Population aged 16-29
About this Indicator
This indicator measures the percentage of the population aged 16-29.
| Indicator | 2018 Baseline | 2021 Target | 2028 Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population aged 16-29 | 15.5% of the population is aged 16-29 | At least 18% of the population is aged 16-29 | At least 20% of the population is aged 16-29 |
Source
There are multiple sources for this data, with both the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS) providing the same data on Mid-Year Population Estimates. Originally the partnership used the ONS as the primary source, however a move has been made to using the NRS. This is due to the NRS publishing the data slightly earlier, and publishing Small Area Population Estimates (which can be used for locality profile data).
In order to calculate the percentage of the population aged 16-29, the data sheet with the estimated population broken down by sex and single year of age is used. The population estimates for single year of age 16 through to 29 are then combined. This is then calculated as a percentage of the total population for Shetland.
Most recent data
14.0% of the population in Shetland were aged 16-29 in 2022. This is a decline from the baseline of 15.5% and is lower than the 2021 target of having at least 18% of the population in this age category.
Why do we monitor this indicator?
There is a need for Shetland to attract and retain more people of working age to help maintain vibrant and resilient communities in the future. The ambition to ensure an increase in 16-29 year olds relates to depopulation, where many communities struggle to retain their population and an ageing society.
Skills Development Scotland forecasts suggest that between 2018-2043, Shetland’s total population will decrease by 6.1% and the working age population will decrease by 9.6%. As the workforce ages, experienced and well qualified workers will leave the labour market with an estimated replacement requirement of 3,600 workers forecast (2019-2029). Brexit adds a further layer of complexity, which impacts the migrant workforce, making it harder to grow our working age population.
While older people make an enormously valuable contribution to the economy and their communities, a population balance being older makes it harder to sustain services and the economy. Increasing life expectancy may mean longer retirements for people, coupled with a reduction in the income tax take, presenting challenges for public services providing the services people may rely on in older age.
This indicator contributes to monitoring the desired outcomes outlined in the Place priority of the Partnership Plan.
“Shetland will be attracting and retaining the people needed to sustain our economy, communities and services.”