Fragility Index
Trends and Analysis
| Year | Shetland | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 2011/12 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2012/13 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2013/14 | 101.7 | 101.3 |
| 2014/15 | 103.0 | 102.2 |
| 2015/16 | 104.2 | 103.1 |
| 2016/17 | 105.2 | 103.8 |
| 2017/18 | 106.2 | 104.5 |
| 2018/19 | 107.6 | 105.3 |
| 2019/20 | 109.1 | 106.0 |
| 2020/21 | 110.7 | 106.8 |
| 2021/22 | 111.9 | 107.5 |
| 2022/23 | 112.7 | 108.3 |
| 2023/24 | 113.2 | 109.0 |
The fragility index is increasing in both Scotland and Shetland. Shetland’s fragility is increasing at a faster rate than Scotland’s. An increasing fragility index means that Shetland is experiencing the impact of a reducing and / or ageing population.
Shetland’s fragility index was the 2nd highest in Scotland behind Aberdeenshire. Other areas of the Highlands and Islands are not experiencing the same degree of change. ONS 2018 found that older people make up higher proportions of the populations of rural and coastal areas than urban areas.
Over 10 years, Shetland has experienced a 1% decrease in population, however, the demographic of the population has changed more significantly. Between the 2011 and 2022 Census, the percentage of over 65s in Shetland has gone from 16.3% to 21.8%. This change is slightly more than Scotland’s 16.8% in 2011 to 20.1% in 2022.
In 2011, the working age population (16-64) in Shetland was 64% of the total population, this decreased to 60% in 2022. In Scotland, this age group proportion also reduced, but by a smaller proportion, from 65.9% in 2011 to 63.6% in 2022.
Depopulation is experienced differently in different parts of Shetland. Shetland Partnership’s locality profiles show population decrease in Yell, Unst & Fetlar (7%); Whalsay & Skerries (8%); Lerwick & Bressay (7%); and Shetland North (1%) over 10 years (NRS Scotland Population Estimates 2021). There had been a 9% increase in Shetland Central, 4% increase in Shetland West, and a 2% increase in Shetland South in the same time frame. Shetland’s Islands with Small Populations have also experienced depopulation. More information can be found in Shetland Partnership’s Islands with Small Populations Second Locality Plan.
Last Updated: May 2026