Fragility Index
About this Indicator
The fragility index is a combined index of three indicators: depopulation – the decline or reduction of the population in a particular area; old age dependency ratio – the ratio of older people (65 and over) to the working age population (16 to 64); and rural depopulation – the change in the proportion of the population living in rural or rural remote areas. A rising index indicates an increasingly fragile demographic.
This indicator was added to Shetland Partnership’s monitoring in 2024.
| Indicator | 2018 Baseline | 2021 Target | 2028 Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fragility Index | No 2018 baseline | No targets currently set | No targets currently set |
Source
This indicator is created by the Improvement Service and used in the Community Planning Outcomes Profile (CPOP). For information on how this was calculated, the CPOP Methodology can be found here. Data for the three indicators comes from National Records Scotland population estimates.
Most Recent data
In 2021/23, Shetland’s fragility index score was 114.3, an increase from the previous year of 113.2. A rising index means that the demographic is becoming increasingly fragile. This is the highest score, since the data has been made available (2010/11). There has also been an upward trend in Scotland, but the fragility index is lower at 109.2. Shetland had the second highest fragility index compared to other local authorities in Scotland in 2022/23 behind Aberdeenshire.
Why do we monitor this indicator?
There is a need for Shetland to attract and retain more people of working age to help maintain vibrant and resilient communities in the future. Depopulation, rural depopulation and the age ratio of a place can all have significant social, economic and environmental impacts.
Depopulation matters because, as well as these impacts, it can disrupt the fabric of an area’s identity and levels of prosperity (LGIU 2024). LGIU (2024) highlight that depopulation brings economic decline to local government due to fewer taxpayers; as well as a risk to essential local services which rely on working-age residents with certain skills and experiences, such as education and healthcare. Depopulation, alongside an ageing population increase pressure on those services. Other consequences include environmental decay and degradation if unoccupied homes and buildings become derelict. Depopulation also threatens an area’s cultural and local heritage as younger generations may move in without adopting the traditions, languages and customs.
The population in Shetland, Scotland and the UK is ageing. By 2050, it is projected that one in four people in the UK will be aged 65 years or over. This is important since the ageing population has implications for a number of policy areas, one of which is the economy and how the changing needs of an older population can be met (ONS 2019).
An ageing population presents both issues and opportunities. The ONS (2018) highlight that ageing can have an impact on pensions, social care, housing and well-being. It can also present opportunities both at a societal and individual level, such as emergence of new markets, increased involvement in volunteering and community activism, longer working lives, spending more time with family and friends and possibly providing care for family members.
Skills Development Scotland (2023) highlight that by 2045, the number of people of pensionable age in Scotland is expected to increase, while the working-age population is projected to decline, and migration is expected to be the only source of population gain in Scotland.
A reduction in our working age population, and an increase in over 65 population means that services and businesses may need to adapt. Shetland Islands Council highlighted a significant problem labelled ‘Our Workforce Challenge’ in 2024. The Council stated that, alongside many organisations and businesses in the isles, they face problems in recruiting to many vacant positions. Latest figures show that the Council has around 200 full time equivalent vacancies, with 90 of those in Community Health and Social Care. The Council also highlights that their workforce is getting older with more than half of its staff over 45, and fewer young people coming forward to take up employment.
This indicator contributes to monitoring the desired outcomes outlined in the Place priority of the Partnership Plan.
“Shetland will be attracting and retaining the people needed to sustain our economy, communities and services.”