Annual Report 2023/24 - Monitoring Progress

The Fragility Index was added as an indicator to the Shetland Partnership’s monitoring in 2024. It is a combined index of three indicators: depopulation; old age dependency ratio – the ratio of older people (65 and over) to the working age population (16 to 64); and rural depopulation – the change in the proportion of the population living in rural or rural remote areas. A rising index indicates an increasingly fragile demographic. This indicator is compiled by the Improvement Service for their Community Planning Outcomes Profile (CPOP).  In 2021/22, Shetland’s Fragility Index score was 112.0, an increase from the previous year of 110.8. This is the highest score for Shetland, since data has been available (2010/11).  There has also been an upward trend in Scotland, but the index is lower at 108.2. Shetland had the fifth highest fragility index compared to other local authorities in Scotland in 2021/22, behind Orkney, Clackmannanshire, Aberdeenshire and West Lothian.

Over 10 years, Shetland has experienced a 1% decrease in population, however, the demographic of the population has changed more significantly. Between the 2011 and 2022 census, the percentage of over 65s in Shetland has increased from 16.3% to 21.8%. In 2011 the working age population (16-64) in Shetland was 64% of the total population, which decreased to 60% in 2022. 

A reduction in our working age population, and an increase in over 65 population means that services and businesses may need to adapt. Shetland Islands Council highlighted a significant problem labelled ‘Our Workforce Challenge’ in 2024. The Council stated that, alongside many organisations and businesses in the isles, they face problems in recruiting to vacant positions. Latest figures show that the Council has around 200 full time equivalent vacancies, with 90 of those in Community Health and Social Care. The Council also highlights their workforce is getting older with more than half of its staff over 45, and fewer young people coming forward to take up employment. 

Similarly, although there is no new data for the indicator for Businesses Struggling to Recruit Labour, anecdotal evidence suggests that tourism, hospitality, construction and engineering sectors struggle to recruit, and that growth opportunities are often challenging because businesses do not know where the labour will come from to allow expansion. Promote Shetland are working to attract people into hard-to-fill professions, for example teaching, social care, dentists, doctors and planners. There has also been an increase in Modern Apprenticeship starts in 2023/24 (183, compared to approximately 150 the year before, SDS 2024).